New patterns of China’s foreign trade
China’s foreign trade growth has been slowing down since 2011. In the meanwhile, the structure of China’s foreign trade has been evolving.
Developed countries are still the main markets for China’s exports. Before 2013, the share of China’s exports to developed countries was declining and that to emerging markets was rising. That trend has stalled in recent years. In 2015, China exported more to OECD countries than to non-OECD countries. Among developed countries, the US overtook the EU to again become China’s largest export destination; Japan’s share of China’s exports continued to shrink. Among emerging markets, the shares of ASEAN and Africa in China’s exports rose fastest, while the share of BRICS countries fell.
Most of mainland China’s exports to Hong Kong are re-exported to third places or back to mainland China. Hong Kong used to be the largest destination for China’s exports. Hong Kong’s share of China’s exports fell after the Asian financial crisis and has since recovered slightly. Hong Kong accounted for 14.7% of mainland China’s exports in 2015, behind only the US and the EU. Most of China’s exports to Hong Kong are re-exported, not only to third-party markets, but to China as well.
The structure of China’s exports by major product category stabilized; the shares of some high-tech products rose. Before the mid-2000s, the shares of mechanical and electrical products in China’s exports rose while that of textile products fell. In the past 10 years, the shares of these two categories stabilized. The shares of certain products changed: among electronic products, mobile phone exports have been replacing computer exports; among miscellaneous products, the share of lamps and lighting fixtures increased while that of toys declined; among high-tech products, unmanned aerial vehicle exports surged; steel exports rose amid domestic overcapacity.
Developed countries are also the main sources of China’s imports. The shares of China’s imports from developed markets recovered slightly in recent years while lower commodity prices dragged down China’s imports from OPEC countries and Australia. The part of mainland China’s exports to Hong Kong that is re-exported back to mainland China is counted as imports from China, which are influenced by domestic demand.
By product, the shares of commodities in China’s imports declined while the shares of consumer goods rose. Crude oil and iron ore accounted for lower shares of China’s imports due to the decline of commodity prices. Consumer goods accounted for higher shares of China’s imports: the share of gold jewelry jumped and the shares of pharmaceuticals, fruits & nuts, alcohol, cosmetics and skin care products also rose.